Monday, October 02, 2006

Time to Lay

There are some people who refuse to bet against their own team in a display of loyalty. It is misplaced. There is money to be won. You should use the only area where you have an advantage over the bookies; specialist knowledge of your team.

That is why Cardiff City have been such a good bet recently. They have been underestimated by a begrudging and sceptical media, and this has influenced the public to ignore them in the markets. But now, people are catching on, and their odds have been slashed for promotion to the Premiership.

Now is the time to bet against them. The 1st team is superb, but outside that eleven, the squad is threadbare. Part of the reason for our success so far is that Dave Jones has a settled team. This can't go on.

Apart from injuries which will surely fall (probably to Paul Parry), Ledley and Gilbert are young players who will do very well to maintain their form over a season. Chopra should be the subject of Premiership interest in January, and Scimica is getting on a bit.

our results recently have looked very impressive, but there lies a story behind them. Luton and Wolves both played with ten men. Southend were abject, as has been proved by their recent form. The one game where we were seriously tested, away at Preston - we lost. Next up is Crystal Palace away.

As I write, you can lay Cardiff at 15/8 for Promotion on Betfair. i.e. you put up £150, and win £80 if we are NOT promoted to the Premiership. Apart from the practical reasons for opposing Dave Jones' team, the truth is that this is Cardiff we are talking about. Things like that just don't happen to us.

Likewise Wales. Without Giggs, Collins, and crucially, Mark Delaney, we look a bit short against a decent Slovakia side. In fact, you could put out a better eleven of Welsh players who won't play:

Brown, Duffy, Collins, Page, Thatcher; Speed,Savage, Johnson, Hargreaves; Giggs, Hartson,

Isn't that depressing?

Back to the bet. I can't see Wales getting a win out of this game, and they will be good to lay. Probably at odds of just under evens.

If all this goes against the grain, learn from my experience of betting against Cardiff when we played at home to Stoke in the playoffs a few years back. I had bet £100 at 3/1 on Stoke, and when the final whistle went on a 2-0 Stoke win, it certainly helped to ease my pain.

1 comment:

Amanda Huggenkiss said...

"We even managed to rush our way through "You'll Never Walk Alone" when we used to chant it in the 80's. "Wok on" clap clap. "Wok on" Clap clap, "with ope" clap clap "in yur ah" clap clap."

Surely this is the malign influence of 'The Anfield Rap'